Sunday, December 25, 2011

Why So Many Stock Market Pros Made Bad Calls This Year

Photo: HolyTaco.com

(CNBC.com) By Reuters - For anyone who makes money by making sense of financial markets, 2011 was a confounding year.

Whether it was Europe's seemingly intractable debt crisis, uprisings in the Middle East or the political bickering and growing debt burden that cost the United States its AAA credit rating, investors had to be more nimble than ever to stay ahead of swiftly changing sentiment.

When the history books are written, 2011 may go down as the year when political risk trumped economics, earnings and interest rates as the main force driving capital markets.

"I can't remember a year when politics had such a big impact on capital markets," said Ron Florance, head of investment strategy at Wells Fargo Private Bank, which oversees $157 billion in assets. "Maybe during the crash of 1987, but that lasted for a day. This has lasted for 365."

Just ask Tony Crescenzi, a portfolio manager at PIMCO, operator of the world's largest bond fund. For most of his 28-year career, a successful strategy boiled down to making the right call on the U.S. economy.

Not anymore.

"Now you've got all these other things in the mix. I've had to use a lot more of my time to learn about a lot more things," he said, noting that German, Greek, Chinese and other foreign newspapers are now part of his daily reading regimen.

Read full story at CNBC.com...